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1999 New Brunswick general election

Canadian provincial election

Field	Value
election_name	1999 New Brunswick general election
country	New Brunswick
type	parliamentary
party_colour	no
party_name	no
previous_election	1995 New Brunswick general election
previous_year	1995
outgoing_members	53rd New Brunswick Legislative Assembly
election_date	June 7, 1999
elected_mps	[members](54th-new-brunswick-legislative-assembly)
next_election	2003 New Brunswick general election
next_year	2003
seats_for_election	55 seats of the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick
28 seats were needed for a majority
turnout	75.59%
image1	[[File:Bernard Lord crop.jpg	150x150px]]
colour1
leader1	Bernard Lord
leader_since1	1997
party1
leaders_seat1	Moncton East
last_election1	6
seats1	44
seat_change1	38
popular_vote1	209,008
percentage1	53.0%
swing1	22.1%
image2	[[File:Camille Thériault.jpg	150x150px]]
colour2
leader2	Camille Thériault
leader_since2	1997
party2
leaders_seat2	Kent South
last_election2	48
seats2	10
seat_change2	38
popular_vote2	146,934
percentage2	37.3%
swing2	14.3%
image3	NDP
colour3
leader3	Elizabeth Weir
leader_since3	1988
party3
leaders_seat3	Saint John Harbour
last_election3	1
seats3	1
seat_change3
popular_vote3	34,526
percentage3	8.8%
swing3	0.9%
map_image	Nb1999.PNG
map_size	250px
map_caption	Map of New Brunswick's ridings coloured in based on the winning parties and their popular vote
title	Premier
before_election	Camille Thériault
before_party
after_election	Bernard Lord
posttitle	Premier after election
after_party

28 seats were needed for a majority

]] The 1999 New Brunswick general election was held on June 7, 1999, to elect the 55 members of the 54th New Brunswick Legislative Assembly.

Campaign

The election marked the debut of both Camille Thériault and Bernard Lord as leaders of the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives respectively. It was Elizabeth Weir's third general election as leader of the New Democratic Party.

Thériault's Liberals were widely expected to win a fourth majority government from the outset of the campaign, with opinion polls showing them leading by double-digits. However, the PCs were able to capitalize on the issue of highway tolls and use it to portray the Liberals as arrogant. Lord made the tolls an effective wedge issue, saying they were unfair to people who lived near the toll booths and had to drive through them daily. Lord then pledged to implement 20 of his key promises in his first 200 days in office, styled as "200 Days of Change", a message modelled on the Contract with America and the Common Sense Revolution, and it resonated with voters. Another disadvantage for the Liberals was the loss of former premier Frank McKenna, who had retired after 10 years in office in 1997. McKenna was widely popular and Thériault had difficulty shaking negative comparisons between himself and his predecessor.

Following a huge surge in the final weeks of the campaign, Lord became Premier with his party winning its largest majority in the history of New Brunswick. Lord's PCs also won the majority of Acadian seats, something the party had struggled to do in the past.

At 80% of the legislature, Lord's 44-seat landslide victory was viewed as remarkable by all parties. Thériault, who came off in the campaign as cold and uncharismatic, delivered what pundits thought was his best speech of the campaign on election night when he said "the people of New Brunswick have spoken, and the people of New Brunswick are never wrong". Furthermore, Lord's massive victory had a coattail effect that resulted in the defeat of many Liberals who had been viewed by pundits as undefeatable.

Opinion polls

Polling firm	Last day
of survey	Source	NBPC	NBLA	NBNDP	CoR	Other	ME	Sample	NB	PC}};" data-sort-type="number"		NB	Liberal}};" data-sort-type="number"	NB	NDP}};" data-sort-type="number"	NB	CoR}};" data-sort-type="number"	CA	Indépendant}};" data-sort-type="number"
Election 1999	June 7, 1999		53.0	37.3	8.8	0.7	0.2
Omnifacts	June 1999	{{cite news	title=Liberal 'cakewalk' looks more like an uphill climb: New Brunswick election is too close to call though Theriault at first looked certain to win	first=Kevin	date=June 7, 1999	work=The Globe and Mail	page=A7}}	49	40	7
Léger	May 26, 1999	title=Polls suggest N.B. Liberals in tough fight with Tories: Conservatives say results have given new energy to campaign; Grits believe team now working harder to win June 7 vote	first=Kevin	date=June 1, 1999	work=The Globe and Mail	page=A11}}	33	46	15
Omnifacts	May 1999	{{cite news	title=New Brunswick: Tories take lead in polls	work=The Times Colonist	page=A9}}	46	39	13	1.5
Omnifacts	May 1999		45	37	13	1
Baseline Market Research	May 1999	title=Poll gives PCs first lead since Hatfield	first=Jacques	work=The Telegraph Journal	page=A1}}	36.8	46.7	14.9	1.6
	May 11, 1999	{{cite news	title=New Brunswick Tory Leader calls for tax cuts Lord tries to cut Liberals' lead by arguing that high provincial rates drive away doctors and nurses	first=Kevin	date=June 18, 1999	work=The Globe and Mail	page=A4}}	33	51	10		6
Corporate Research Associates	March 1999	{{cite news	title=Liberals' popularity up slightly: poll	work=The Telegraph Journal}}	28	51	8
Baseline Market Research	January 13, 1999	{{cite news	title=Pollster finds Liberals are main choice	first=Alan	work=The Telegraph Journal}}	32	51	14	3
Corporate Research Associates	November 30, 1998	{{cite news	title=Liberal popularity dips in latest poll	first1=Lisa	last2=Veniot	first2=Andre	date=December 8, 1998	work=The Telegraph Journal}}	25	51	13
Corporate Research Associates	August 24, 1998	{{cite news	title=Liberals' approval rating jumps	first=Andre	work=The Telegraph Journal}}	20	56	14
Corporate Research Associates	June 1998	{{cite news	title=Theriault should wait to call election, poll indicates	first=Giselle	work=The Telegraph Journal}}	21	49	19
Corporate Research Associates	February 24, 1998	{{cite news	title=Poll tracks steady Liberal decline	first=Don	work=The Telegraph Journal	page=A1}}	30	43	20
[Election 1995](1995-new-brunswick-general-election)	September 11, 1995		30.87	51.63	9.65	7.11	0.75

Riding-specific polls

Moncton East by-election

Polling firm	Last day
of survey	Source	NBPC	NBLA	NBNDP	CoR	ME	Sample	NB	PC}};" data-sort-type="number"	NB	Liberal}};" data-sort-type="number"	NB	NDP}};" data-sort-type="number"	NB	CoR}};" data-sort-type="number"
By-election 1998	October 19, 1998		50.93	39.73	9.34	—
SES Canada Research	October 14, 1998	{{cite news	title=Moncton East going down to the wire: poll	first=Lisa	work=The Telegraph Journal}}	49	40	11
[Election 1995](1995-new-brunswick-general-election)	September 11, 1995		18.02	61.80	11.82	8.36

Summary of results

Party	Party Leader	# of
candidates	Seats	Popular Vote	[1995](1995-new-brunswick-general-election)	Dissolution]]	Elected	% Change	#	%	Change	44	10	1	-	Total	196	55	55	55	-	394,237	100%	+1.2%
Progressive Conservative	Bernard Lord	55	6	9	+289%	209,008	53.0%	+22.1%	Liberal	Camille Theriault	55	48	45	-77%	146,934	37.3%	-14.3%	New Democratic	Elizabeth Weir	55	1	1	-	34,526

Narrow wins and losses

A lot of Liberals, many high profile, lost their seats by very narrow margins while some barely survived. Below is a list of the 14 ridings (over a quarter of all districts) decided by less than 10%. Incumbent Liberal cabinet ministers are in bold, other incumbents are in italics.

Riding	Winner	Second Place	Margin
Dieppe-Memramcook			Cy LeBlanc
Fredericton North			D. Peter Forbes
Fredericton-Fort Nashwaak			Eric MacKenzie
Fundy Isles			Eric Allaby
Grand Falls Region			Jean-Guy Laforest
Grand Lake			David Jordan
Kent South			Camille Thériault
Nepisiguit			Joel Bernard
Nigadoo-Chaleur			Roland Haché
Restigouche West			Benoit Cyr
Rogersville-Kouchibouguac			Rose-May Poirier
Saint John Champlain			Carole Keddy
Victoria-Tobique			Larry Kennedy
Western Charlotte			Tony Huntjens

Candidates

Party leaders and cabinet ministers are denoted in bold.

Northern New Brunswick

|- | |Jean-Paul Savoie 3,328 || |Benoît Cyr 3,592 | |Rose Duguay 255 | | ||

Jean-Paul Savoie

Edmond Blanchard 4,321

| |Pierre F. Dubé 2,569 | |Johanne Parent 295 | | ||

Edmond Blanchard

| |Carolle de Ste. Croix 2,830 || |Dennis Furlong 5,148 | |Joel William Hickey 190 | |Francine Richard (NLP) withdrawn ||

Carolle de Ste. Croix

Roland Haché 3,435

| |Hermel Vienneau 2,862 | |Raoul Charest 1,244 | |Gilles Godin (NLP) 106 ||

Albert Doucet

Marcelle Mersereau 3,418

| |Bob Stairs 2,427 | |Antoine Duguay 453 | | ||

Marcelle Mersereau

| |Alban Landry 2,227 || |Joel Bernard 2,534 | |Gilles Halley 1,824 | | ||

Alban Landry

Bernard Theriault 4,194

| |Gaston Moore 3,369 | |Denis Doiron 596 | | ||

Bernard Theriault

| |Jean-Camille DeGrâce 2,563 || |Paul Robichaud 5,910 | |Calixte Chaisson 368 | | ||

Jean-Camille DeGrâce

| |Denis Landry 2,097 || |Louis-Philippe McGraw 3,045 | |Roger Duguay 955 | | ||

Denis Landry

| |Serge Rousselle 2,926 || |Elvy Robichaud 5,453 | |Claudette Duguay 285 | | || |Elvy Robichaud |}

Eastern New Brunswick

|- | |Danny Gay 3,066 || |Réjean Savoie 4,014 | |Donald D. Doucet 365 | | ||

Danny Gay

| |James Doyle 3,076 || |Michael Malley 5,393 | |John Gagnon 147 | | ||

James Doyle

| |John McKay 2,975 || |Kim Jardine 4,076 | |Terry Mullin 853 | | ||

John McKay

| |Reg MacDonald 2,850 || |Norman Betts 4,019 | |Terry Carter 254 | | ||

Reg MacDonald

| |Maurice Richard 2,700 || |Rose-May Poirier 2,820 | |Maria Daigle 1,197 | | ||

Kenneth Johnson

Shawn Graham 3,264

| |Valmond Daigle 2,471 | |Charles Richard 402 | |J.R. Beers (Ind) 103 ||

Shawn Graham

Camille Thériault 4,546

| |Jean-Noël Allain 3,838 | |Collette Doucette 1,171 | | ||

Camille Thériault

Bernard Richard 5,422

| |Odette Babineau 3,240 | |Anne Marie Dupuis 633 | | || |Bernard Richard |}

Southeastern New Brunswick

|- | |Kirk W. Meldrum 925 || |Peter Mesheau 3,311 | |Heather Patterson 990 | |Frank Comeau (Ind) 47 ||

Peter Mesheau

| |Greg O'Donnell 4,738 || |Cy LeBlanc 5,206 | |Marc LeBel 754 | | ||

Greg O'Donnell

| |Kevin John Fram 2,046 || |Bernard Lord 5,248 | |Marc Robar 542 | |Laurent Maltais (NLP) 59 ||

Bernard Lord

| |James E. Lockyer 2,710 || |Joan MacAlpine 3,143 | |Theresa Sullivan 687 | | ||

James E. Lockyer

| |Gene Devereux 2,304 || |René Landry 3,776 | |Nancy Hartling 1049 | |John Gallant (CoR) 103 ||

Gene Devereux

| |Kenneth R. MacLeod 2,233 || |John Betts 4,825 | |Carl Fowler 699 | |Albert H. Wood (CoR) 85 ||

Kenneth R. MacLeod

| |Gary Stewart Armstrong 1,171 || |Wally Stiles 4,284 | |Blair McInnis 447 | |Donald R. Alward (CoR) 278 ||

Hollis Steeves

| |Al J. Kavanaugh 2,151 || |Pat Crossman 4,439 | |Brad Smith 888 | |Shane Harvey (CoR) 137

Jamie Ed Borden (Ind) 81 ||

Al J. Kavanaugh

| |Harry Doyle 2,065 || |Wayne Steeves 3,633 | |Myrna Geldart 529 | |Dean Ryder (CoR) 136 ||

Harry Doyle

| |LeRoy Armstrong 2,420 || |Doug Cosman 4,310 | |Jessica Coleman 354 | |Eldon MacKay (CoR) 109 || |LeRoy Armstrong |}

Greater [[Saint John, New Brunswick|Saint John]] & Fundy Coast

|- | |Georgie Day 2,628 || |Bev Harrison 4,551 | |Jocelyne Comeau 769 | | ||

Georgie Day

| |Peter LeBlanc 2,388 || |Brenda Fowlie 4,070 | |Albert Charles Joseph Comeau 939 | |Greg Boyle (CoR) 192 ||

Peter LeBlanc

| |Stuart Jamieson 1,933 || |Rodney Weston 3,473 | |Robert E. Holmes-Lauder 494 | |David Lytle (CoR) 115 ||

Stuart Jamieson

| |Zita Longobardi 1,752 || |Margaret-Ann Blaney 4,605 | |Ken Wilcox 664 | | ||

Laureen Jarrett

| |Roly MacIntyre 1,949 || |Carole Keddy 2,073 | |Dr. Paula C. Tippett 1,597 | |Dolores H. Cook (CoR) 98

Jeanne Geldart (NLP) 36 ||

Roly MacIntyre

| |Mark Thomas McNulty 1,347 | |Tim Clarke 1,349 || |Elizabeth Weir 2,398 | |Thomas Mitchell (NLP) 54 ||

Elizabeth Weir

| |Leo McAdam 1,668 || |Trevor Holder 3,773 | |Pam F. Coates 844 | |Miville Couture (NLP) 45 ||

Leo McAdam

| |Jane Barry 2,190 || |Norm McFarlane 3,999 | |Bill Farren 945 | |Jim Webb (CoR) 154

Christopher B. Collrin (NLP) 96 ||

Jane Barry

| |Grace Losier 1,433 || |Milt Sherwood 3,546 | |Percy Ward 490 | |Colby Fraser (CoR) 240 ||

Milt Sherwood

Sheldon Lee 3,263

| |Sharon Tucker 2,071 | |Eugene A. Dugas 299 | | ||

Sheldon Lee

Eric Allaby 1,248

| |Ed Brine 1,192 | |Bill Barteau 66 | | ||

Eric Allaby

| |Peter Heelis 3,071 || |Tony Huntjens 3,490 | |Andrew Gordon Graham 283 | | || |Ann Breault |}

Greater [[Fredericton]]

|- | |Ron Lindala 2,059 || |Jody Carr 4,372 | |Terry John Hovey 283 | |Paul Pye (CoR) 151 ||

Vaughn Blaney

| |Doug Tyler 3,245 || |David Charles Jordan 3,769 | |Phyllis MacLean 384 | |Murray C. Barton (CoR) 223 ||

Doug Tyler

| |Brad Woodside 3,698 || |D. Peter Forbes 4,081 | |Todd Joseph Tingley 632 | |Ronald Bubar (CoR) 203

William Parker (NLP) 34 ||

Jim Wilson

| |Greg Byrne 2,685 || |Eric MacKenzie 2,949 | |Pat A. Kennedy 715 | |David Alexander Brown (CoR) 96

Andie Haché (NLP) 31 ||

Greg Byrne

| |Lorraine Siliphant 2,510 || |Brad Green 4,070 | |Myrna Gunter 1,409 | |Michael McKay (NLP) 66 ||

Brad Green

| |Joan Kingston 3,077 || |Keith Ashfield 4,223 | |Carol E. Moore 441 | |George Rennick (CoR) 182 ||

Joan Kingston

| |John Flynn 3,783 || |Don Kinney 4,332 | |Josh Johnson 449 | |Malcolm MacNeil (CoR) 88 ||

John Flynn

| |David Olmstead 2,385 || |Kirk MacDonald 4,405 | |Sandra Burtt 463 | |Wilmot F. Ross (CoR) 217 || |David Olmstead |}

Upper [[Saint John River (New Brunswick)|Saint John River]] Valley

|- | |James W. Andow 1,989 || |David Alward 5,354 | |Sheila Moore 242 | | ||

Bruce Atherton Smith

| |David Harvey 3,240 || |Dale Graham 4,561 | |Marilyn Young 176 | | ||

Dale Graham

Larry Kennedy 3,127

| |Carmen Cecil Pirie 2,768 | |Amy Dunham 144 | |Carter Charles Edgar (Ind) 204 ||

Larry Kennedy

| |Marcel Deschênes 3,094 || |Jean-Guy Laforest 3,493 | |Jean-Paul Gallant 265 | | ||

Paul Duffie

| |Huguette Plourde 1,798 || |Percy Mockler 4,367 | |Jean-Charles Lombard 189 | | ||

Percy Mockler

| |Roland Beaulieu 2,173 || |Madeleine Dubé 3,567 | |Michael Gagné 366 | | ||

Bernard Valcourt

| |Georges Corriveau 2,138 || |Jeannot Volpé 4,289 | |Marie-Pierre Valay-Nadeau 154 | | ||

Jeannot Volpé
}

References

(February 5, 2014). "Provincial Election Results - Elections NB".

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