1998 Australian federal election

Background

The election returned the Member of the House of Representatives for its 1998–2001 term and half of Australia's senators, who then served in the 1999–2002 Senate.

Despite winning almost 51 percent of the two-party-preferred vote and regaining much of what it had lost in its severe defeat of two years earlier, Labor fell short of forming government. The government was re-elected with 49.02% of the two-party-preferred vote, compared to 50.98% for the Australian Labor Party, the largest difference of six election results where the winner did not gain a two-party preferred majority, since 2PP results first estimated from 1937.

The election on 3 October 1998 was held six months earlier than required by the Constitution. Prime Minister John Howard made the announcement following the launch of the coalition's Goods and Services Tax (GST) policy launch and a five-week advertising campaign. The ensuing election was almost entirely dominated by the proposed 10% GST and proposed income tax cuts. This election was not the first to be centred on a GST the 1993 election saw the Keating Labor government re-elected after a proposal by then Opposition leader John Hewson to introduce a 15% GST.

In reaction to One Nation's policies, the other significant parties all agreed to preference against One Nation. One Nation lost its lone house seat when founder and leader Pauline Hanson lost on preferences to Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson in the Queensland electorate of Blair. In Queensland, One Nation polled 14.83% of the Senate vote, sufficient to elect one senator without the need for preferences. The seat initially went to Heather Hill, but she was subsequently disqualified under Section 44 of the Constitution, and replaced by Len Harris.

The election-eve Newspoll reported Labor on a 53 percent two-party-preferred vote.

On election night of 3 October, the exit poll showed Labor on a 53 percent two-party-preferred vote. Labor made the single biggest gain by an Opposition party following an election defeat; the Coalition's majority was cut from 40 to 12. It was only when the first returns trickled in from Western Australia that the Coalition was assured of another term. The swing across all states would have normally been sufficient for a change of government, but the uneven nature of the swing left Kim Beazley eight seats short of becoming prime minister. The uneven nature of the swing saw Labor getting huge swings in seats that they held prior to the election but not enough in seats needed to gain government.

The election for the division of Newcastle was deferred as the candidate died on 1 October, two days before the federal election. A supplementary election was held on 21 November, with Labor holding the seat.

Results

House of Representatives results

Coalition

Liberal (64)

National (16)

Opposition (67)

Labor (67)

Crossbench (1)

Independent (1) ]]

Senate results

Coalition

Liberal (31)

National (3)

CLP (1)

Opposition (29)

Labor (29)

Crossbench (12)

Democrats (9)

Greens (1)

One Nation (1)

Independent (1)

]]

House of Representatives preference flows

• The Nationals had candidates in 13 seats where three-cornered-contests existed, with 88.89% of preferences favouring the Liberal Party.
• One Nation contested 135 electorates with preferences slightly favouring the Liberal/National Coalition (53.66%)
• The Democrats contested 144 electorates with preferences slightly favouring Labor (56.72%)
• The Greens contested 120 electorates with preferences strongly favouring Labor (73.28%)

Seats changing hands

• The Labor Party retained the seat of Oxley (Qld) which was became Labor-held in the redistribution.

Opinion polling

In the lead-up to the election, a number of polling companies conducted opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, leaders' favourability, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred lead.

Voting intention

House of Representatives

Senate

Individual seat polling

[[Division of Blair|Blair]]

[[Division of Brand|Brand]]

Notes

References

References

1. (23 September 1998). "What are the main issues?". [[The Riverine Herald]].
2. "Newspoll archive since 1987". Polling.newspoll.com.au.tmp.anchor.net.au.
3. Antony Green. (4 February 2016). "How Many Seats Did John Howard Lose at the 1998 GST Election?". ABC News.
4. "1998 House of Representatives: NSW".
5. (19 January 2011). "Newcastle 1998 supplementary election".
6. (27 September 1998). "1998 Federal Election – Week 5". AustralianPolitics.com.
7. (10 November 2009). "Did the Howard Government Undermine Australian Democracy?". Australian National University.
8. (18 June 2018). "Federal Newspoll Records Page". Dr Kevin Bonham.
9. (3 October 1998). "Newspoll surge tips Beazley for Lodge". Australian Financial Review.
10. (20 September 1998). "1998 Federal Election – Week 4". AustralianPolitics.com.
11. (22 September 1998). "Poll result will go down to the wire, says Reith". Australian Financial Review.
12. (15 September 1998). "Undercurrents vary as polls give conflicting results". Australian Financial Review.
13. (13 September 1998). "1998 Federal Election – Week 3". AustralianPolitics.com.
14. (6 September 1998). "1998 Federal Election – Week 2". AustralianPolitics.com.
15. (30 August 1998). "1998 Federal Election – Week 1". AustralianPolitics.com.