1998 Armenian presidential election

Overview

The first round was held on 16 March 1998. Prime Minister and acting President Robert Kocharyan and Karen Demirchyan, the leader of Soviet Armenia from 1974 to 1988, won the most votes: 38.5% and 30.5% respectively. Demirchyan, who came in second, had been absent from politics for 10 years and had been in business.

Demirchyan was seen as a good old man from the Soviet times who could "return to the certainties of the past and distaste for mafia capitalism personified by Ter-Petrosyan's rule." Demirchyan was very popular among the Armenian public. A poll quoted by Western diplomats, showed that Demirchyan had the support of the 53% of Armenians, while Kocharyan was favored by only 36%. He was also preferable for the West, since he had more moderate approach to the Karabakh conflict, while Kocharyan was seen as more likely to take a hard line because of his deep connections with Karabakh (Kocharyan is a native of the region and was previously president of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic). Demirchyan was also favored by Russian leaders, who considered Kocharyan an obstacle to the resolution of the Karabakh conflict. Russia's foreign minister Yevgeny Primakov openly endorsed Demirchyan, while Kocharyan was depicted by Russian television as "pro-Western" and "a radical."

The second round of the election was held on March 30 between Kocharyan and Demirchyan. Kocharyan won with 58.9% of the vote. The final results showed Demirchyan having only 40.1% of the vote. The British Helsinki Human Rights Group claimed that "ordinary Armenians turned to Robert Kocharian as someone untainted by mafia connections and the intrigues of Yerevan politics." The OSCE observation mission described the first round as "deeply flawed," while their final report stated that the mission found "serious flaws" and that the election did not meet the OSCE standards. Although Demirchyan didn't officially dispute the election results, he never accepted them and did not congratulate Kocharyan.

Results

Analysis

Hrant Mikayelian, researcher at the Caucasus Institute, estimated, based on turnout analysts, that actual results of the first round were as follows: Kocharyan at 32.6%, Demirchyan at 33.5%, Manukyan at 13.3% and Badalyan at 12%. As for the final result, Mikayelian estimated that Kocharyan would still win if no electoral violations took place, but with a smaller margin: 50.6% vs Demirchyan's 48.3%.

References

References

1. [[Dieter Nohlen]], Florian Grotz & Christof Hartmann (2001) ''Elections in Asia: A data handbook, Volume I'', p329 {{ISBN. 0-19-924958-X
2. Nohlen ''et al.'', p337
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5. (15 March 1998). "Armenians vote for president Monday".
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7. Bennett, Vanora. (31 March 1998). "Armenians Vote for New President". [[Los Angeles Times]].
8. "The Armenian Parliamentary Elections, 30th May 1999". [[British Helsinki Human Rights Group]].
9. Sanamyan, Emil. (27 October 2019). "From the Archives: In 1990s Russia Saw Kocharyan as Obstacle to Karabakh Deal".
10. "Summer 1998". [[International Foundation for Electoral Systems]].
11. (19 March 1998). "Armenian elections go to run-off".
12. (9 April 1998). "Republic of Armenian Presidential Election March 16 and 30, 1998 Final Report". [[Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights]].
13. (1999). "Report on Armenia's parliamentary election May 30, 1999". [[Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe]].
14. (28 October 1999). "Key Armenian leaders assassinated".
15. (16 December 2018). "Если бы выборы в Армении были честными? Альтернативный подсчет. 1990-е гг.".