1996 Australian federal election

Background

John Howard, who had previously led the Liberal Party from 1985 to 1989, returned to the leadership in January 1995 following the party's disastrous eight months under the leadership of Alexander Downer. Downer and deputy PM Peter Costello had succeeded John Hewson and Michael Wooldridge early in 1994 and were touted as the leaders of the new-generation Liberals. In the end, the party opted for the seasoned Howard, perhaps an acknowledgement that he was the only one left standing after a decade of party infighting.

Campaign

Howard approached the campaign with a determination to present as small a target as possible. Throughout 1995 he refused to detail specific policy proposals, focusing the Coalition's attacks mainly on the longevity and governing record of the Labor government. By 1996, however, it was clear that the electorate had tired of Labor and in particular of Paul Keating. The line "The recession we had to have" resonated with deadly force throughout the electorate. Although Keating's big-picture approach to republicanism, reconciliation with Australia's Indigenous peoples and engagement with Asia galvanised support within Labor's urban constituencies, Howard was able to attract support amongst disaffected mainstream Australians, uniting middle-class suburban residents with traditionally Labor-voting blue-collar workers. He also promised to retain Medicare and hold a constitutional convention to decide whether Australia would become a republic.

The election-eve Newspoll reported the Liberal/National Coalition held an estimated 53.5 percent two-party-preferred vote.

On election day, the news was dominated by the Ralph Willis letter. Treasurer Ralph Willis had released a letter purporting to be secret correspondence between Howard and Liberal Premier of Victoria, Jeff Kennett. Howard quickly denounced the letter as a forgery and claims of Labor skulduggery dominated the last day, drowning out anything Keating said. The letter was subsequently revealed to be the work of university students. Left-wing writer Bob Ellis claimed that the Ralph Willis letter was the cause of Keating's crushing defeat.

Results

House of Representatives results

Coalition

Liberal (75)

National (18)

CLP (1)

Opposition (49)

Labor (49)

Crossbench (5)

Independent (5) ]]

Senate results

Coalition

Liberal (31)

National (5)

CLP (1)

Opposition (29)

Labor (29)

Crossbench (10)

Democrats (7)

Greens (2)

Independent (1) ]]

House of Representatives preference flows

• The Democrats contested 138 electorates with preferences slightly favouring Labor (54.02%)
• The Greens contested 102 electorates with preferences favouring Labor (67.10%)

Seats changing hands

• *Figure is Liberal against Nationals.
• **Figure is a swing compared to Liberal vote at the last election.

Analysis

Overall the coalition won 29 seats from Labor while the ALP won 4 seats from the Liberals. These 4 seats were Canberra and Namadgi in the ACT and Isaacs and Bruce in Victoria. The ACT seats, which had been won by the Liberals in a by-election, fell to Labor due to a strong return to the ALP in a traditional Labor town by public servants fearing conservative cuts. The division of Brendan Smyth's seat of Canberra into the two new (of the three) ACT seats limited his campaign to the southernmost Tuggeranong seat of Namadgi where the ACT Labor right wing stood former MLA Annette Ellis who ran a tight grassroots campaign. Isaacs and Bruce fell to Labor due to demographic changes due to a redistribution of electoral boundaries.

Labor lost five percent of its two-party vote from 1993, and tallied its lowest primary vote since 1934 (an additional eight percent coming from preferences). The swing against Labor would not normally have been enough in and of itself to cause a change of government. However, Labor lost 13 of its 33 seats in New South Wales, and all but two of its 13 seats in Queensland. The 29-seat swing was the second-largest defeat, in terms of seats lost, by a sitting government in Australia. Three members of Keating's government – including Attorney-General Michael Lavarch – lost their seats. Keating resigned as Labor leader on the night of the election, and was succeeded by former deputy prime minister and Finance Minister Kim Beazley.

Due in part to this large swing, Howard entered office with a 45-seat majority, the second-largest in Australian history (behind only the 55-seat majority won by Malcolm Fraser in 1975). The Liberals actually won a majority in their own right at this election with 75 seats, the most the party had ever won. Although Howard had no need for the support of the Nationals, the Coalition was retained. , this was the last time the Liberals have won a majority in their own right at a federal election.

Exit polling showed the Coalition winning 47 percent of the blue-collar vote, compared with Labor's 39 percent; there was a 16-point drop in Labor's vote among members of trade unions. The Coalition won 48 percent of the Catholic vote and Labor 37 percent, a reversal of the usual figures.

Notes

References

References

1. "Newspoll archive since 1987". Polling.newspoll.com.au.tmp.anchor.net.au.
2. John Stone. (15 March 1996). "Remember, it was Paul Keating". [[The Australian Financial Review]].