2010 RF12
Small risk–listed near-Earth asteroid
title: "2010 RF12" type: doc version: 1 created: 2026-02-28 author: "Wikipedia contributors" status: active scope: public tags: ["apollo-asteroids", "minor-planet-object-articles-(unnumbered)", "potential-impact-events-caused-by-near-earth-objects", "near-earth-objects-in-2010", "astronomical-objects-discovered-in-2010"] description: "Small risk–listed near-Earth asteroid" topic_path: "general/apollo-asteroids" source: "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_RF12" license: "CC BY-SA 4.0" wikipedia_page_id: 0 wikipedia_revision_id: 0
::summary Small risk–listed near-Earth asteroid ::
::data[format=table title="Infobox planet"]
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| minorplanet | yes |
| name | |
| background | #FFC2E0 |
| discovery_ref | |
| discoverer | Mount Lemmon Srvy. |
| discovery_site | Mount Lemmon Obs. |
| discovered | 5 September 2010 |
| mpc_name | |
| mp_category | NEOApollo |
| orbit_ref | |
| epoch | 2025-Nov-21 (JD 2461000.5) |
| uncertainty | 0 (MPC) 2 (JPL) |
| observation_arc | 11.98 years |
| aphelion | 1.261 AU |
| perihelion | 0.86158 AU |
| time_periastron | 2026-Mar-05 |
| semimajor | 1.0615 AU |
| eccentricity | 0.18831 |
| period | 1.094 yr (399.445 d) |
| mean_anomaly | 266.1° |
| mean_motion | / day |
| inclination | 0.88267° |
| asc_node | 163.69° |
| arg_peri | 267.44° |
| moid | 0.00060 AU |
| mean_diameter | |
| 6–12 meters (CNEOS) | |
| abs_magnitude | 28.42 |
| :: |
| minorplanet = yes | name = | background = #FFC2E0 | image = | image_size = | caption = | discovery_ref = | discoverer = Mount Lemmon Srvy. | discovery_site = Mount Lemmon Obs. | discovered = 5 September 2010 | mpc_name = | alt_names = | mp_category = NEOApollo | orbit_ref = | epoch = 2025-Nov-21 (JD 2461000.5) | uncertainty = 0 (MPC) 2 (JPL) | observation_arc = 11.98 years | aphelion = 1.261 AU | perihelion = 0.86158 AU | time_periastron = 2026-Mar-05 | semimajor = 1.0615 AU | eccentricity = 0.18831 | period = 1.094 yr (399.445 d) | mean_anomaly = 266.1° | mean_motion = / day | inclination = 0.88267° | asc_node = 163.69° | arg_peri = 267.44° | moid = 0.00060 AU | mean_diameter = 6–12 meters (CNEOS) | rotation = | spectral_type = | abs_magnitude = 28.42
**** is a very small asteroid, classified as a near-Earth object of the Apollo group, that passed between Earth and the Moon on 8 September 2010, at 21:12 UTC, approaching Earth within 79000 km above Antarctica. The asteroid was discovered by the Mount Lemmon Survey near Tucson, Arizona on 5 September 2010 along with . Based on a short 7-day observation arc from that apparation, it was listed for 12 years on the Sentry Risk Table as the asteroid with the greatest known probability (5%) of impacting Earth. was rediscovered in August 2022, and now has a 12-year observation arc and a much better known orbit. As of the December 2022 solution which accounts for nongravitational forces, there is a 1-in-10 chance of an Earth impact on 5 September 2095.
::data[format=table title="Nominal Earth Approach on 6 September 2095 with a 12-year [[observation arc]]"] | Date | Impact probability | JPL Horizons nominal geocentric distance (AU) | uncertainty region (3-sigma) | |---|---|---|---| | 2095-09-06 00:06 ± 00:20 | 1:10 | 0.00035 AU | ±180 thousand km | ::
In 2023, **** was identified as a possible dark comet. Dark comets are asteroids that exhibit comet-like acceleration, but visually appear as asteroids, with no coma or tail. Astronomers who study them believe the acceleration is caused by outgassing on the sunlit side.
Description
NASA's Near Earth Program estimates its size to be 7 m in diameter with a mass of around 500 tonnes. The power of the airburst would be somewhere between the 2–4 m Sutter's Mill meteorite and the 17 m Chelyabinsk meteor (which had 440 KT equivalent energy). The approach in 2096 is poorly known because it is dependent on the September 2095 Earth approach.
::data[format=table title="Virtual impactors with a 12-year observation arc"] | Date | Impact probability (1 in) | JPL Horizons nominal geocentric distance (AU) | NEODyS nominal geocentric distance (AU) | MPC nominal geocentric distance (AU) | Find_Orb nominal geocentric distance (AU) | uncertainty region (3-sigma) | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | 2095-09-05 23:46 | 10 | 0.00035 AU | 0.0008 AU | 0.00066 AU | 130000 km | ±180 thousand km | | 2096-09-04 21:50 | 22000 | 0.84 AU | 0.18 AU | 0.36 AU | 0.19 AU | ±414 million km | ::
On 17 February 2059 the asteroid will pass within 3.5 million km from Earth and reach about apparent magnitude 22.6 by late February. On 10 September 1915 it passed from Earth.
Notes
References
|title = MPEC 2010-R41 : 2010 RF12 |publisher = IAU Minor Planet Center |date = 2010-09-05 |url = http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/mpec/K10/K10R41.html |access-date = 2014-04-17}} (K10R12F)
|title=MPEC 2022-S77 : 2010 RF12 |publisher=IAU Minor Planet Center |date=2022-09-19 |url=https://minorplanetcenter.net/mpec/K22/K22S77.html |accessdate=2022-09-19}}
|title = JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2010 RF12) |type = 2022-08-24 last obs. |publisher = Jet Propulsion Laboratory |url = https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=2010RF12&view=OPC |archive-url = https://archive.today/20221223224337/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html%23/?sstr=2010RF12&view=OPC |archive-date= 2022-12-23 |url-status = live |access-date = 2022-12-23}}
|title = 2010 RF12 |work = Minor Planet Center$ |date = 8 September 2010 |url = https://www.minorplanetcenter.net/db_search/show_object?object_id=2010+RF12 |access-date = 21 January 2020}}
|title = Second Asteroid to Buzz Earth Later Today |work = National Geographic |date = 8 September 2010 |url = http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/09/100908-asteroids-earth-nasa-catalina-sky-survey-science-space/ |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20100911072645/http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/09/100908-asteroids-earth-nasa-catalina-sky-survey-science-space |url-status = dead |archive-date = 11 September 2010 |access-date = 21 January 2020}}
|title = Harvard scientists keep an eye on wayward asteroids |work = Boston Globe Media Partners |date = 8 September 2010 |url = http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2010/09/harvard_scienti_1.html |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20100909142420/http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2010/09/harvard_scienti_1.html |archive-date= 9 September 2010 |access-date = 21 January 2020}}
|title = Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2010 RF12 |publisher = NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office |url = https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2010%20RF12 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20170122151206/http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2010rf12.html#?des=2010%20RF12 |archive-date = 22 January 2017 |url-status = live |access-date = 2022-12-23}}
|title = Sentry Risk Table |publisher = NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office |url = https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/ |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20100911052418/http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/ |archive-date = 11 September 2010 |url-status = live |access-date = 2022-12-23}}
|title=Horizons Batch for 2095-09-05 23:46 Virtual Impactor Time |publisher=JPL Horizons |url=https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272010+RF12%27&START_TIME=%272095-09-05%2023:46%27&STOP_TIME=%272095-09-06%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20days%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221223231926/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272010+RF12%27&START_TIME=%272095-09-05%2023:46%27&STOP_TIME=%272095-09-06%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20days%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 |archive-date=2022-12-23 |url-status=live |accessdate=2022-06-12}} RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#25/Soln.date: 2022-Dec-20 generates RNG_3sigma = for 2095-Sep-05 23:46.)
|title=Horizons Batch for 2095-09-06 00:06 Earth Approach |publisher=JPL Horizons |url=https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272010+RF12%27&START_TIME=%272095-09-06%2000:06%27&STOP_TIME=%272095-09-07%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20days%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221223232436/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272010+RF12%27&START_TIME=%272095-09-06%2000:06%27&STOP_TIME=%272095-09-07%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20days%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 |archive-date=2022-12-23 |url-status=live |accessdate=2022-12-23}} RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#25/Soln.date: 2022-Dec-20 generates RNG_3sigma = for 2095-Sep-06 00:06.)
|title=Horizons Batch for 2096-09-04 21:50 Virtual Impactor Time |publisher=JPL Horizons |url=https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272010+RF12%27&START_TIME=%272096-09-04%2021:50%27&STOP_TIME=%272096-09-05%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20days%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220707092915/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272010+RF12%27&START_TIME=%272096-09-04+21%3A50%27&STOP_TIME=%272096-09-05%27&STEP_SIZE=%272+days%27&QUANTITIES=%2720%2C39%27 |archive-date=2022-07-07 |url-status=live |accessdate=2022-07-07}}
|title=Find_Orb for 2095-09-06 |publisher=Project Pluto |url=https://www.projectpluto.com/cgi-bin/fo/fo_serve.cgi?obj_name=2010+RF12&year=2095-09-06&n_steps=1&stepsize=1 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220706182711/https://www.projectpluto.com/cgi-bin/fo/fo_serve.cgi?obj_name=2010+RF12&year=2095-09-06&n_steps=1&stepsize=1 |archive-date=2022-07-06 |url-status=live |accessdate=2022-07-06}}
|title=Find_Orb for 2096-09-05 |publisher=Project Pluto |url=https://www.projectpluto.com/cgi-bin/fo/fo_serve.cgi?obj_name=2010+RF12&year=2096-09-05&n_steps=1&stepsize=1 |archive-url=https://archive.today/20221223230808/https://www.projectpluto.com/cgi-bin/fo/fo_serve.cgi?obj_name=2010+RF12&year=2096-09-05&n_steps=1&stepsize=1 |archive-date=2022-12-23 |url-status=live |accessdate=2022-12-23}}
|title = Impactor Table: 2010RF12 |publisher = NEODyS-2 |url = https://newton.spacedys.com//neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.2&n=2010RF12 |access-date = 21 January 2020}} (1 in 12)
|title = 2010RF12 Ephemerides for 5−6 September 2095 |publisher = NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site) |url = https://newton.spacedys.com//neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.1&n=2010RF12&oc=500&y0=2095&m0=9&d0=5&h0=12&mi0=0&y1=2095&m1=9&d1=6&h1=12&mi1=0&ti=1.0&tiu=hours |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20220706185615/https://newton.spacedys.com//neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.1&n=2010RF12&oc=500&y0=2095&m0=9&d0=5&h0=12&mi0=0&y1=2095&m1=9&d1=6&h1=12&mi1=0&ti=1.0&tiu=hours |archive-date= 2022-07-06 |url-status = live |access-date = 21 January 2020}} (NEODyS Close Approach Table))
|title = 2010RF12 Ephemerides for 4−5 September 2096 |publisher = NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site) |url = https://newton.spacedys.com//neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.1&n=2010RF12&oc=500&y0=2096&m0=9&d0=4&h0=12&mi0=0&y1=2096&m1=9&d1=5&h1=12&mi1=0&ti=1.0&tiu=hours |archive-url = https://archive.today/20221223092947/https://newton.spacedys.com//neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.1&n=2010RF12&oc=500&y0=2096&m0=9&d0=4&h0=12&mi0=0&y1=2096&m1=9&d1=5&h1=12&mi1=0&ti=1.0&tiu=hours |archive-date= 2022-12-23 |url-status = live |access-date = 23 December 2022}}
|title = Five Years after the Chelyabinsk Meteor: NASA Leads Efforts in Planetary Defense |publisher = NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Office |url = https://www.nasa.gov/feature/five-years-after-the-chelyabinsk-meteor-nasa-leads-efforts-in-planetary-defense |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20220102014840/https://www.nasa.gov/feature/five-years-after-the-chelyabinsk-meteor-nasa-leads-efforts-in-planetary-defense/ |archive-date = 2 January 2022 |url-status=live |access-date = 2022-01-19}}
References
- Many small and harmless asteroids (less than ~10 meters in diameter) impact Earth every year but very few are discovered and predicted, see [[Asteroid impact prediction]].
- Seligman, Darryl Z.. (2023-02-15). "Dark Comets? Unexpectedly Large Nongravitational Accelerations on a Sample of Small Asteroids". The Planetary Science Journal.
- (2025-05-01). "Dark Comets". Scientific American.
- {{mp. 2010 RF. 52000. 180000. airbursts]] in the upper atmosphere. Pebble sized fragments would likely fall to the ground at terminal velocity.[http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/18/40/2493218.pdf How a Near-Earth Object Impact Might Affect Society, 9 January 2003, Clark R. Chapman, SwRI, Boulder CO USA]
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